The New Zealander has impressed the powers that be within the Red Bull camp since taking over from Daniel Ricciardo following the Singapore Grand Prix.
That has seen the 22-year-old linked with a drive alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing next season as the operation looks to make a change.
While not confirmed, Sergio Perez will be ushered out at Milton Keynes at the end of the season.
Speaking after the race in Qatar, team boss Christian Horner’s comments included a subtle change of tone.
“Checo has had a very tough year, and obviously the points tables are what they are,” he said.
“We’re very much focused on really supporting him to the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi.”
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After the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi, however, the gloves look set to come off as Horner has stopped defending his driver as vehemently as he once did.
Perez’s retirement in Qatar, brought about by a lack of drive, was seemingly caused by his Safety Car spin and the race winner overheating the clutch as he dumped it to get going again.
Horner was also critical of the 34-year-old’s Sprint performance, where he was beaten from a pit lane start by Franco Colapinto.
“We sent him to the end of the pit lane seven minutes ahead of Colapinto for a reason,” he said.
“He’s won five grands prix for us, and he’s had some outstanding performances in races like Singapore, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia.
“Everybody holds Checo in the highest of regard and respect, but obviously, the situation that we’re in is as painful for him as it is for the team.”
No decision on drivers will be made official until after Abu Dhabi. Perez’s holds a valid contract for next season but that is not thought to be an impediment to a change.
“I’m going to let Checo come to his own conclusions,” Horner said of Perez’s immediate future.
“Nobody’s forcing him one way or another… it’s not a nice situation for him to obviously be in.”
With continued lacklustre performances having seemingly ended the Mexican driver’s career – at least for now – Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda are the leading contenders to replace him.
It’s understood to be a close run thing between the pair, though given Lawson is in consideration against his more experienced RB team-mate is viewed as a positive sign given the Kiwi is not yet a dozen races into his F1 career.
That it is a choice between Lawson and Tsunoda speaks to the fact interest surrounding Franco Colapinto has dwindled significantly.
Once thought to be a strong contender for the drive, his recent spate of crashes have seen his stock plummet dramatically.
Red Bull Racing and Alpine were both interested in the young Argentinian such there were suggestions it could come down to a bidding war for his signature, though multiple sources have told Speedcafe that he is no longer viewed as an option by either team.
Indeed, Alpine is expected to promote Jack Doohan into a race seat as soon as this weekend’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in place of the Haas-bound Esteban Ocon.
It’s now expected Colapinto will revert to a reserve driver role at Williams, though there remains appetite from Grove to sell him on if possible – a berth at RB has been suggested but that seems unlikely given Red Bull Racing has discounted him.
Instead, Isack Hadjar is firming as the most likely replacement for whichever of the current RB pair is promoted to the senior team in place of Perez next season.
Hadjar was second in the F2 Feature race in Qatar and heads to the season finale in Abu Dhabi essentially tied on points with Gabriel Bortoleto at the top of the standings.
The Frenchman has long been part of the Red Bull development program and his promotion is viewed as endorsement of it – a point which is necessary given the signings of Perez and Daniel Ricciardo from outside the program in recent years.
Hadjar’s move to RB also reaffirms the squad’s position as a junior team operating both independently but in concert to a degree with Red Bull Racing, especially when it comes to drivers.
That leaves the decision over who to partner Verstappen a straight shootout between Lawson and Tsunoda with a ready replacement no matter the choice.
Lawson is highly regarded within Red Bull.
Though far from the finished article, he’s shown speed and taken responsibility for his actions – a trait that has gone over well.
In Mexico City, following his clash with Perez, Lawson called a meeting with Horner to discuss the incident.
It is that proactivity and willingness to take his medicine that stands him in good stead.
Having been patient and loyal, Lawson is viewed as a key part of Red Bull’s F1 future.
Whether that sees him become the natural successor to Verstappen is far from clear, but of the current options available he is the most natural fit.
Conversely, Tsunoda is rapid but temperamental.
The Japanese driver is in his fourth season of F1 but remains prone to radio outbursts that are unbecoming of a Red Bull driver.
He’s also lacks that je ne sais quoi that the very best Red Bull drivers have had.
It’s difficult to imagine him leading Red Bull’s F1 charge the way Verstappen has, or Sebastian Vettel did before him for that matter.
Tsunoda is also Honda aligned, with the relationship between Honda and Red Bull set to end at the conclusion of 2025.
Meanwhile, Colapinto’s F1 dream looks set to come to an end in Abu Dhabi this weekend, at least for now.
While supremely fast, his run of crashes through Brazil and Las Vegas did him no favours.
With another wave of youngsters a year or two away, he’ll face renewed competition for a place on the grid come 2026 or 2027, if he’s even considered.
Memories in F1 are short and the Argentinian’s star has fallen from the stratospheric heights it reached. It will further dim every weekend he is not on the grid.
That is not to say he’s not good enough.
Every youngster goes through difficult periods, but with a limited window to showcase his wares before handing the Williams seat to Carlos Sainz next season, his downturn in form has come at arguably the worst possible time.
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